Joey's NFL Primetime Props 11/30/20
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite Prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
NFL: 13-7 +4.18
September Record: 58-48 +25.91 units
October Record: 34-27 +9.26 units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sports book.
Travis Fulgham OVER 50.5 receiving yards -118 1.18 units to win 1 unit: Fulgham is coming off two of his worst games of the season. Seeing one reception and 8 yards in both games. Weird how they both fell on the same receptions and yards. Luckily, he has a get right spot tonight against the Seahawks, who have allowed 355 passing yards per game. This should leave a ton of yards to go around for these receivers for the Eagles. While he hasn’t accumulated many yards these two games, he is averaging 6 targets per game. This has equated to 166 air yards in both games combined, 91 yards last week and 75 the week before. If you are unfamiliar with air yards, it is the distance the ball traveled on targets, regardless of the target was caught or not. He also had an aDOT of 13.8 yards. He has only converted 10% of his air yards into yards during that time, which is one of the worst in the league. He is responsible for 27% of the air yards in this offense as well.
People could try to convince you that his decrease in production has been due to the return of Dallas Goedert, but that is further from the truth. All his volume stats are the same as they have been from weeks 5-9 where he dominated. He put up 50+ yards in every game during that stretch, while averaging 87 yards, 8.8 targets, and 5.8 receptions. While his target share has decreased about 10% from his unsustainable 30% target share during that time. The air yards share has only decreased one or two percentage during this time. The matchup is too good to pass up with his air yards staying consistent.