Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 13)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for Week 13 of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different, while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Detroit Lions (+155) vs Chicago Bears (-177)

The Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions will face off in a divisional matchup this weekend. The Bears are 3 point favorites in a game set at 45 points, giving them an implied team total of 24 points. 

Allen Robinson’s dealt with inconsistent quarterback play, but he’s found plenty of success in 2020. He owns 71 receptions for 829 yards and 5 touchdowns on 108 targets through 11 games. Robinson’s played essentially four games with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback. In those games, he’s averaging 6.5 receptions for 76 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on 11 targets per game. He’s posted 74+ yards in 3 of his 4 games with Trubisky, as well. 

Robinson’s the top receiving option, playing 94% of the offensive snaps this season. He boasts a 25% target share, recording 25.4% of the team’s receptions, 31% of receiving yards, and 26.3% of receiving touchdowns. Robinson’s seen 1,037 air yards with a 9.6 aDOT this season. Overall, he’s accounted for 28.3% of Chicago’s air yards. 

Robinson gets a great matchup against Detroit this season. They’re allowing 262.8 passing yards per game and 8.3 adjusted yards per attempt this season. The Lions have given up 22 passing touchdowns in 2020, as well. 

Robinson will spend the majority of his snaps against Amani Oruwariye this weekend. Oruwariye’s been Detroit’s best cornerback, per Pro Football Focus, but he’s still been a below-average option. He’s allowing only a 51% catch rate while being targeted on 14% of his routes covered. Oruwariye’s also allowed 1.29 yards per route covered. Robinson plays at least 30% of his snaps at each role, though, meaning he’ll face off against Jeffrey Okudah and Justin Coleman, who have also struggled in 2020. 

Trubisky has quietly found plenty of success against Detroit throughout his career, and they have struggled defensively. Surprisingly, the big question mark surrounding Robinson this weekend isn’t his quarterback, but rather his health. He was limited in practice on Friday, although any participation suggests he’ll be a full-go come Sunday. 

Bet 1.25 units on Allen Robinson over 70.5 receiving yards (-125) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NFL Season Record - 29-29 (+0.89 unit)