Welcome to Week 13s NFL Sunday Blitz Report

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The game within the game – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the Blitz Cheat Sheet is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – money! Let’s look at the options that provide the most opportunity and value within a given game.

Season Performance

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
25-21-1	12-17-0	26-12-1	7-3-5	4-2-6

 

Week 12 Recap

Week 12

Spreads went 2-2, and let me caveat, that Eagles -6 was over 6 for more than 24-hours prior to game time, so fairly confident likely grabbed over the 6 and cashed on the lucky hail mary. The two outright loser was a Giants fluke miss, as Giants dominated the game, but one drive, KR TD and Danny Dimes injury had this game whiff. Chargers also cost us with inept coaching once again, another fluke lose, but the 49ers was easy from start to finish at a ridiculous +6.5.

Totals bombed again! If tailing, maybe lay off the total recs until we get some life back there. Went 0-2 last week going in opposite directions of under on explosive offenses vs poor defenses and vver on poor offenses vs capable defenses. Fundamentally, that is just a glaring mistake.

Exotics kept pace with the rest of the year by going 2-1, hitting a double tease with Arizona and Patriots either way, and teasing Bucs for safety. The loss came with Chicago’s inability to play defense for the first time all season.

The good news is, Live Bets went 1-0-1, the push being Titans/Colts told to take both sides when Titans manhandled the game due to Colts injuries/Covid issues. The monster hit was Panthers and Vikings, as Vikings led out and could of got an amazing price on Panthers, only for the Panthers to score 2 fluke defensive TD’s before Vikings stormed back and won! That’s the type of live bet volatility that if tail can make monster gains if allocate right. ML Panthers after going down at +270, then Vikings +320, and/or take spreads either way, and stacking wins in a major way.

Game of the Week was half right, with the first part being to take the Falcons then the spread and total over. The part that missed was going the other way with it and looking to middle. So, we grade that a push!

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 12:

Now – for what you are here for, week 13!

Week 13

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
4	2	4	2	1	0

Featured Spread Play

Raiders @ Jets

Look, I get it. You hate betting the Jets. I do too. But, the Raiders are without their best offensive player, Josh Jacobs, and their best defensive player Abrams. Darnold always struggles in his first games back after being away, so he should play better now that has his feet under him against a defense that is actually worse than the Jets, if you can believe it. If Darnold can lead his team to just 2 TD’s, I think Jets cover this game with ease, and in fact, I’m calling for Jets to get their first win of the season here. Last year these teams played in a similar spot, Raiders were -6 or so on the road, and Jets spanked the Raiders. I doubt Raiders lay another egg here, but if Darnold is even moderately sharp here, Jets should be in position to win this game outright.

Feayured Total Play

Jaguars @ Vikings

Why make this total any more difficult than it needs to be? Vikings are going to score over 30 points, so Jags need to get to about 20 to cover this total. 31-20 gets the cover, and I think a 38-17 score is even more likely. I lean total instead of Vikings spread, because if the handicap is wrong, I think it likely gets over the total anyhow, whereas, if the spread cap is wrong, no chance of covering 10 points.

Featured Exotic Play

Saints @ Falcons

I think Falcons win straight up, but to give a little more padding vs the better division team, getting this line to +10 seems as gravy train as it gets. Falcons should have both star WR’s back, and Falcons D has been massively improved since Quinn’s firing. As long as Falcons can keep Ryan upright, they should be in this game and able to pull the upset.

Featured Live Play

Rams @ Cardinals

Browns and Titans is the other option to Live Play this week, but Rams and Cardinals I am more confident about as far as being a close game or Rams pull away. Rams should have a better offensive showing here than they did last week, remember, on a short week playing 49ers after beating the Bucs on the east coast. Murray also doesn’t look right, and with Ramsay limiting Hopkins, Rams should be able to do enough to win straight up. If can get Cards more than 7 points the other way would look to get a Rams ML and Cards Spread middle.

Off Play

Bengals @ Dolphins

Since it looks like Fitzmagic is playing, definitely Dolphins or off. But, just too many points for my liking.

Game of the Week

Eagles @ Green Bay

This is my first Game of the Week taking a BIG underdog as the primary position. Eagles were up to +9.5 last time I checked, which is abusrd. I get the Wentz suck narrative, and right now, he does, but the Eagles D is legit and I could see the game plan being similar to last year’s where the Eagles ran for 160+ yards and so Wentz only had to throw it in the red zone more or less. Eagles won that game in Green Bay as well. So? Let’s lead out with Eagles ML and Spread, though be modest, as I think it is likely Packers jump out to a lead in the first half. Can add a bit more from there, and then if Eagles swing it and get the lead can hedge on packers to try and middle.

Cheat Sheet

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear spread, total, or exotic etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!