Welcome to Week 14s Sunday Blitz Report

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The game within the game – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the blitz cheat sheet is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – money! Let’s look at the options that provide the most opportunity and value within a given game.

Season Performance

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
28-22-1	13-17-1	28-12-3	8-3-6	4-3-6

Season total is 81-57-17, and a reminder the 17 pushes are defined by -- if weren’t right on the number, the cap was half right up front, like in a live play that didn’t pan out on the hedge, so should break even if tailed.

Week 13 Recap

Week 13 was one of my best capped weeks of the season, yet our allocations only picked up a few percent. I bring this up to remind you that there are different skillsets at work when betting. One – my greatest strength, just capping situations/games/narratives and alternative game flows. And two – bet allocation, as in how much x do you put on y and how many plays of z do you make? The latter I work with partners to maximize my efficiency, which is why the Blitz Report is more of a capper’s guide than an allocation recommendation. For the latter, follow us in Discord through Bet Karma.com

Now, back to week 13 – Spreads went an impressive 3-1 with the lone loss being on the Steelers who just couldn’t find a consistent offense in the second half vs a tougher than people think Washington Football Team. The three that hit were Denver +14, New England by a mile and J.E.T.S. who should have gotten their first win of the season, like I suggested they would. The good thing if betting live, you could have mopped up taking Jets money line and hedging to lock in profits both ways with Raiders when they were down.

Totals finally did not have a loss, as the under in the Giants game was spot on and Over 51 for Minnesota gave us a push.

Exotics had 2 wins and 2 pushes, with the Colts and Atlanta teases working exactly as needed, considering the Colts were 10 yards away from not covering late vs Watson’s Texans. The tease on Chicago saved us with a push on their collapse, and teasing both Bills and 49ers lefts us with only one side hitting.

Live Bets, dominating all year, and providing the most +EV outside of the Game of the Week, cashed with Cleveland dominating and Titans storming back to cover all the numbers they were down by after the first quarter. The Rams game I leaned Rams and recommended leading out on them to then try to middle with a Cardinals comeback. That I graded as a push since Cards lost by more than 1 score.

Game of the Week is still in the green on the season, but I got admittedly cute trying to call bottom on the Eagles with a Rick Ankiel like Carson Wentz. Eagles almost covered at least, once Wentz got relieved, but it just wasn’t the right side anyhow.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 13:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 14!

Week 14

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
5	2	4	2	1	1

Featured Spread Play

Saints @ Eagles

Saints is the consensus play this week in Circa Million. Why? I have no idea. Hurts, even in the short-term is an upgrade over I got the yipps Wentz. Hurts is elusive and confident, two things Wentz had none of. The Eagles defense has played fairly solid all-season, and as they’ve gotten healthier, they played well vs Russel Wilson and decent vs the Packers until that bad luck late long run TD by Aaron Jones. The only caveat here for Eagles, is the team is fairly upset that Wentz got benched, and I think it is because they really like him and know he is capable, more capable than a new rookie. I think it has less to do with anything related to Jalen Hurts. But, that is a blessing in disguise, because the assumption is the team will play worse, when I think the shakeup in and of itself will outweigh any personal grudges for the QB switch. And on the other side, Taysom Hill has played decent, but he’s not a world beater. So, if the Eagles defense plays like it did two weeks ago against the Seahawks, Eagles should be within range to cover, and I think even win. Remember, at least we know Taysom Hill is not Russel Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. So, even if a Darius Slay struggles with their #1 WR again, it won’t be MVP caliber QB’s throwing it.

Featured Total Play

Arizona @ New York Giants

We hit the under on Giants last week, so let’s run it back here. Daniel Jones is still playing with a bad hamstring, so if he cannot run, that mitigates a dynamic of the Giants’ offense that is pivotal to their success. And with their excellent and still underrated defense, and a hobbled Kyler Murray, I don’t see how either team goes much past 20 points in the game without a fluky situation or score.

Featured Exotic Play

KC @ Miami

Tease Chiefs to a pick ‘em, as I just don’t see a likely Tua led Miami offense doing a whole lot against the Chiefs with their injuries and covid issued. If Fitzpatrick plays, they should have more of a chance, but I think this spot is a get right spot for the Chiefs who have played down to competition most of the year.

Featured Live Play

Atlanta @ Chargers

Both of these teams tend to allow late comebacks, a perfect game script to bet live. I’ve also bounced between leaning both teams, which suggests to me there is not much edge to be had and that the game is most likely going to be close late. If either team goes down by more than 2 scores, then grab the other side if all the same players are playing hat started the game. Both offenses should also have success, so no matter who gets down, the other team should find their way back into this game.

Off Play

Cowboys @ Bengals

Gross.

Game of the Week

Steelers @ Bills

Everyone is super high the Bills it seems and super low on the Steelers, as if the Steelers defense cannot wreak havoc on the third most turnover-type-play QB in the NFL, barely behind Drew Lock in Josh Allen, or that the Steelers can’t find success with their weapons now that Pouncey and even James Connor look to be back. Both these teams are bettable, capable and volatile, and that provides a perfect swing for a game like this. I could see this game going similarly to the Rams v Bills game, where the Bills jumped out on fire, but the second half had the Rams storm back and take the lead after being down 3+ scores. Only to see Josh Allen avoid sack after sack, get a fluke bail out by the refs, and cap a game winning drive. To say, play the volatility in this one, especially leaning getting Steelers points and the Over.

Cheat Sheet

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear spread, total, or exotic etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!