Welcome to Week 14s Sunday Blitz Report

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The game within the game – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the blitz cheat sheet is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – money! Let’s look at the options that provide the most opportunity and value within a given game.

Season Performance

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
28-22-1	13-17-1	28-12-3	8-3-6	4-3-6

Season total is 81-57-17, and a reminder the 17 pushes are defined by -- if weren’t right on the number, the cap was half right up front, like in a live play that didn’t pan out on the hedge, so should break even if tailed.

Week 13 Recap

Week 13 was one of my best capped weeks of the season, yet our allocations only picked up a few percent. I bring this up to remind you that there are different skillsets at work when betting. One – my greatest strength, just capping situations/games/narratives and alternative game flows. And two – bet allocation, as in how much x do you put on y and how many plays of z do you make? The latter I work with partners to maximize my efficiency, which is why the Blitz Report is more of a capper’s guide than an allocation recommendation. For the latter, follow us in Discord through Bet Karma.com

Now, back to week 13 – Spreads went an impressive 3-1 with the lone loss being on the Steelers who just couldn’t find a consistent offense in the second half vs a tougher than people think Washington Football Team. The three that hit were Denver +14, New England by a mile and J.E.T.S. who should have gotten their first win of the season, like I suggested they would. The good thing if betting live, you could have mopped up taking Jets money line and hedging to lock in profits both ways with Raiders when they were down.

Totals finally did not have a loss, as the under in the Giants game was spot on and Over 51 for Minnesota gave us a push.

Exotics had 2 wins and 2 pushes, with the Colts and Atlanta teases working exactly as needed, considering the Colts were 10 yards away from not covering late vs Watson’s Texans. The tease on Chicago saved us with a push on their collapse, and teasing both Bills and 49ers lefts us with only one side hitting.

Live Bets, dominating all year, and providing the most +EV outside of the Game of the Week, cashed with Cleveland dominating and Titans storming back to cover all the numbers they were down by after the first quarter. The Rams game I leaned Rams and recommended leading out on them to then try to middle with a Cardinals comeback. That I graded as a push since Cards lost by more than 1 score.

Game of the Week is still in the green on the season, but I got admittedly cute trying to call bottom on the Eagles with a Rick Ankiel like Carson Wentz. Eagles almost covered at least, once Wentz got relieved, but it just wasn’t the right side anyhow.

Here is a recap of the cheat sheet from Week 13:

 

Now – for what you are here for, week 14!