CBB Wisconsin vs Louisville (12/19)

Wisconsin just beat a good Loyola-Chicago team on Tuesday and looks pretty hot after making more than half of their three-point attempts. Meanwhile Louisville hasn’t played in two and a half weeks. I’ve generally been hesitant to back a team off a covid pause, since we don’t know what type of rust they need to shake off. And the Kohl’s Center probably isn’t the place to play coming in cold. Under coach Greg Gard, Wisconsin loses about 3 home games per season; only 1 home loss last season with the same players as this year’s team. 

In addition to hot three-point shooting, Wisconsin gets a lot of points at the charity stripe. This bodes well for the home team Badgers since Louisville has been fouling a decent amount, especially in the paint. Down low is where the Badgers have quite the advantage over the Cards who have been hit pretty bad with the injury bug. Malik Williams and Charles Minlend will both be missing in the front court, leaving behind a group of inexperienced freshmen and sophomores. They will have quite the challenge on the defensive end, chasing Nate Reuvers and Micah Potter from the paint to the arc - both areas where both Wisconsin big men score extremely efficiently. 

Louisville has a strong backcourt with Carlik Jones and David Johnson. They’ll need to get hot from behind the arc to have a chance in this one, as I think they’ll have a tough time scoring anywhere close to the basket. 

The bet: Wisconsin -5.5 (-112) 1.12 units to win 1 unit (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

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