Bales' Best NBA Bet (12/23)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article I will outline my favorite bet for December 23, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Detroit Pistons (+205) vs Minnesota Wolves (-250)

The Detroit Pistons and Minnesota Wolves will be facing off in an interesting matchup tonight. The Pistons are currently 6 point underdogs in a game set at 224.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 109.3 points. 

Jerami Grant is coming off of the worst rebounding season of his career. He averaged only 3.5 rebounds in 26.6 minutes per game, or 4.7 rebounds on a per-36 minute basis. Overall, Grant struggled with a career-low 7.3% total rebounding percentage. He struggled in Denver with Nikola Jokic, Mason Plumlee, and Michael Porter Jr. each posting 16%+ total rebounding percentages. 

Grant signed with the Pistons this offseason, who are lacking elite rebounding options after trading Andre Drummond and losing Christian Wood in free agency. Plumlee will follow Grant to Detroit, taking over as the top rebounding option. Grant and Blake Griffin are the options that will likely become the second and third rebounding options throughout the majority of the game. 

The former displayed that throughout the preseason, posting a 9.9% total rebounding percentage. With Grant making $20 million per year for Detroit, he’s a player that is expected to find 30+ minutes tonight. 

He also gets a great matchup against Minnesota on this slate. Detroit played at one of the slowest paces in the NBA last season, while the Wolves played at the fourth-fastest pace in the league. The pace Minnesota plays at will give Detroit a plethora of rebounding opportunities, adding to Grant’s upside. 

The key to this play will likely be when Grant shifts from small forward to power forward for Detroit. He played 30+ minutes in only 1 of his 4 preseason games, posting 9 rebounds against the Washington Wizards. I expect his rebound rate to increase closer to his 8.5% career total rebound percentage, and this total is a bit too low, specifically for the odds. 

Bet 1 unit on the Jerami Grant over 4.5 rebounds (+100) to win 1 unit