Welcome to Week 17’s Sunday Blitz Report

Zach’s weekly NFL Sunday Blitz Report is – The game within the game – or your weekly guide to help you decide what to target within each NFL Sunday game. Whether it is a spread, money line, total, teaser, parlay or live trading a game, this article and the Blitz Cheat Sheet is here to help you decide where to put your focus, energy and most importantly – money! Let’s look at the options that provide the most opportunity and value within a given game.

The final week is free!

Season Performance

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK
35-28-1	20-18-1	35-17-3	10-3-10	6-3-7

106-69-22 on the season!

 

Week 16 Recap

Week 16 was another positive week with the Game of the Week hitting with Steelers straight up on a huge comeback. It’s that kind of volatility coupled with being on the right side, that if you play it out regardless of what is happening in the game, especially once Pitt cut the deficit to under two scores, you could have made 10+ units on a single game without risking more than 3 units.

Spreads went 3-1 with the lone miss being the Eagles losing to Cowboys. Not to worry, that Eagles loss single handedly cost me thousands of dollars, and I had it legged into teasers/parlays and contests. This is why live betting and hedging are always paramount for a final leg of any bet. Had I been available to hedge, I could have gotten Cowboys at an amazing price live, and at least broke even on all my Eagles related bets. This included a +700 bet to win the division. This is the biggest loss of the year, not because I was on the wrong side, but because I did not play my advantageous position.

Totals are again on a winning streak, going 2-1 with the two wins being the Bears and Bengals overs and the lone dud being a half point miss on the Packers over.

Exotics went 2-2 and Live Plays were pushes. The Bucs you never had a chance to take unless got them pre-game and though I was on Seattle to win, Rams never cut that final deficit to get a middle.

Now – for what you are here for, week 17!

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Week 17

The primary plays worth considering are the following:

SPREAD	TOTAL	EXOTIC	LIVE BET	GAME OF WEEK	OFF GAME
5	4	2	1	1	2

Featured Spread Play

Cardinals @ Rams

The Rams new starting QB is a former 4-year starter who utilized the RPO system. He’s no Lamar Jackson, but he adds a dynamic to the Rams offense no one will have seen. That in itself should be enough for McVay to scheme up the 17-20 points they need to cover or win outright. Also, Kyler Murray is banged up enough to be questionable to even play, and as we’ve seen so far this year, a banged up run-centric QB like Murray needs to be able to run to help his team move the ball down the field. This gives the Rams two potential advantage points, that if the other is incorrect could still compensate for a cover.

Featured Total Play

Seattle @ San Francisco

The Seahawks offense has turned on its head, and 49ers are playing to get to the off-season without their best WR’s. A division game, this should be a conservative, run-centric slug fest. At worst, Seattle gets up big early and coasts, but I have a hard time seeing 49ers getting over 20 points as is. If Seattle gets to 30, an over is possible, but if not it should stay under.

Featured Exotic Play

Cowboys @ Giants

I honestly think both sides might be worth teasing. This is a must win for a shot to win the division, and Cowboys do not have the defense to stop even a bad offense for long. Giants do have the defense to keep their team in the game however. I could see either team winning, but Cowboys are the hotter hand right now, and with Danny Dimes’ struggles and lingering-leg injury, I think this is probably safer to tease in Cowboy’s favor.

Featured Live Play

Dolphins @ Bills

Because this is week 17, there are a lot of unknowns across the board. This game in particular is a must win for Dolphins and a maybe play to win game for the Bills. While live, if can get a read on the Bills game plan, then the Dolphins might be beatable straight up, even with an early lead. If Bills bench Josh Allen at any point, buy Dolphins to win.

Game of the Week

Minnesota @ Detroit

Looks like Stafford is going to play, and if that is the case I like the Lions to rebound and score in droves here, and the Vikings to start throwing their way into the game with Thielen and Jefferson. Both these defenses are bad, and so look for a lot of points in a shootout.

Cheat Sheet

Quick note on the Cheat Sheet, even if a game or side is marked with a clear spread, total, or exotic etc., it does not mean there aren’t other viable options. Sometimes I will note that there are in fact more than one option worth considering. And remember – the Sportfolio trio:  Corey, Brett and I publish our locked in plays every week in the Premium Football channel on Bet Karma’s Discord.

If haven’t checked out the other 2/3’s of our Sportfolio trio, look out for Corey’s weekly handicapping article and Brett’s Sportfolio article, as well as catch our weekly NFL preview podcast The Sports Trading Desk on itunes, Stitcher or YouTube. Our collective Sportfolio picks are only posted in Discord NFL Premium. Sign up at BetKarma.com , follow, and get in the game!