Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 17)
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Bales' Best NFL Bet (Week 17)

Justin Bales
01-02-2021

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for Week 17 of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Atlanta Falcons (+260) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-305)

The Atlanta Falcons will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their season finale. They’re currently 7 point underdogs in a game set at 50.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 21.8 points. 

Calvin Ridley’s enjoyed an elite breakout season. Through 14 games, he boasts 82 receptions for 1,322 yards and 9 touchdowns. Ridley caught fire recently, as well, posting 100+ yards in each of his last 4 games. Over that span, he’s averaging 7.0 receptions for 131.3 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 11.3 targets per game. 

Ridley leads the Atlanta receivers, playing 72% of the offensive snaps this season. Overall, he’s accounted for 21.6% of Atlanta’s receptions, 30.4% of receiving yards, and 36% of receiving touchdowns on a 22.4% target share. Ridley’s seen 2,044 air yards with an elite 15.6 aDOT, accounting for 40% of Atlanta’s air yards in 2020. 

He gets a solid matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are allowing 245.8 passing yards per game and 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt this season. They’ve also given up 27 passing touchdowns in 2020. 

Ridley’s expected to spend the majority of his snaps across from Sean Murphy-Bunting, though. Murphy-Bunting’s struggled throughout the 2020 season, allowing an 80% catch rate while being targeted on 15% of his routes covered. He’s also given up 1.47 yards per route covered in 2020. Overall, he’s graded out as a bottom 12 cornerback in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). 

Ridley’s looked elite without Julio Jones in the lineup, and Jones will be out again this week. Ridley also torched Tampa Bay for a 10/163/1 line on 14 targets only 2 weeks ago. There is the concern that Atlanta doesn’t have anything to play for, but it looks as if they’ll play their regular starters throughout this game. If that’s the case, Ridley should find plenty of success once again. 

Bet 1.12 units on Calvin Ridley over 87.5 receiving yards (-112) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NFL Season Record - 36-33 (+3.53 unit)

 


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