Bales' Best NBA Bet (1/4)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for January 4, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Charlotte Hornets (+350) vs Philadelphia 76ers (-455)

The Charlotte Hornets play the Philadelphia 76ers in a rematch of Saturday’s contests. Tonight, Philadelphia is a 9 point favorite in a game set at 221.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 115.3 points. 

Tobias Harris is coming off an outstanding season for the Sixers. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.2 assists in 34.3 minutes per game over 72 contests. Harris led the team in shot attempts (16.3) and three-point attempts (5.0) per game while ranking third in free throw attempts (3.0) per game last season. 

He’s continued his success early this season, averaging 18.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 1.5 steals in only 31.8 minutes per game. Harris’ role in the offense has dipped slightly because of a couple of early blowouts. Overall, he’s still averaging 14.3 shot attempts, 5.2 three-point attempts, and 2.2 free throw attempts per game this season. 

Harris struggled a bit in his first two games of the season, but he has caught fire over his last four contests. Over that span, he’s averaging 21.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.5 blocks, and 2.3 steals in 32.5 minutes per game. He also dominated Charlotte in his last game, posting a 24/9/6/3/4 line in 37 minutes. 

The matchup against Charlotte is outstanding tonight, as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace this season after ranking last a year ago. With that being said, the Hornets quietly rank 14th in the league in defensive efficiency this season, although they don’t have anyone that can match up one-on-one with Harris. 

Charlotte has consistently struggled against forwards this season. Kyle Anderson posted 34 points, rebounds, and assists against them in only 29 minutes. Kevin Durant (36), Darius Bazley (26), and Larry Nance Jr. (34) all found success in the same categories, as well. 

I don’t expect Harris’ success against Charlotte in their last matchup to be a fluke. The biggest concern could be a lack of minutes, though. Harris recently saw fewer than 30 minutes in a pair of blowouts against the Orlando Magic and Cleveland Cavaliers. He saw 37 minutes in a 15-point win against Charlotte, though, suggesting he should continue to see 30+ minutes tonight. 

Bet 1.12 units on Tobias Harris over 29.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-112) to win 1 unit