Joey's NBA Prop Bets Monday 01/04/21
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
Premium Only: 9-8 +1.38 unit
Free Plays: 1-3 -2.05 units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
Make sure you are playing lighter to start the season, we don't have all the data we need to easily win props as we will later in the season!
Clint Capela OVER 11.5 rebounds -110 1.10 units to win 1 unit: Capela is finally back to normal minutes and is off his minutes limit. I would have preferred him more at 10.5 rebounds but he should still be fine at 11.5. Capela is one of the best rebounders in the league. Tonight, he has a middle of the pack matchup against the Knicks, who have a 27% offensive rebounding percentage. This isn’t a matchup I am nervous about outside of a potential blowout limiting his minutes. Normally blowouts favor the winning team's center so not much concern. Atlanta has one of the lowest opponent turnover % in the league so if this game does turn into a blowout it is because of missed shots, not turnovers.
Capela is averaging 0.5 rebounds per minute and has the 4th best-rebounding % in the league for players playing above 15 MPG. At 30 minutes per game that is 15 minutes with an average game. Knicks have the second-lowest fast-break points % and top 10 in 2-point shots which works perfectly for center rebounding numbers. Centers rebounding numbers thrive in half-court games where teams are shooting a lot of 2s. 3-point attempts lead to longer rebounds so fewer opportunities for centers and more for guards. So, this is the perfect spot for Capela to have a ceiling game.