Bales' Best NFL Bet (Wild Card Weekend)
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Bales' Best NFL Bet (Wild Card Weekend)

Justin Bales
01-08-2021

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NFL Bet. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for the Wild Card Week of the NFL season. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NFL Premium Package. 

Keep in mind, you should always be shopping sportsbooks for the best price. Some props will be a few yards different while some spreads could be an entire point different. Getting the best number possible is one main key to being a successful bettor. 

 

Baltimore Ravens (-175) vs Tennessee Titans (+150)

The Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans will face off in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. The Ravens are currently 3.5 point favorites in a game set at 54.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 29 points. 

Gus Edwards performed well this season. Over 16 games, he posted 723 yards and 6 touchdowns on only 144 carries. Edwards saw double-digit carries in 6 of his 16 games this season, averaging 59 rushing yards per game in those contests. He also recorded 145 yards on 27 carries over his final 2 games of the season. 

Edwards’ only played 34% of the offensive snaps for Baltimore this season. He’s turned 26% of the carries into 23.5% of the rushing yards and 25% of the rushing touchdowns. 

Edwards’ numbers don’t pop off of the page because of the efficiency of J.K. Dobbins and Lamar Jackson as runners, but he averaged 5.0 yards per carry on the season. He also ranked sixth in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (2.7) in 2020. 

Edwards gets an interesting matchup against the Tennessee Titans this weekend. They’re allowing 120.8 rushing yards per game this season. More importantly, Tennessee’s allowing 4.5 yards per carry in 2020. 

Edwards isn’t going to find 20 carries in this game, but he’s likely to see double-digit carries with Mark Ingram out of the rotation. Edwards continues to be an efficient option with defenses focusing on Jackson and Dobbins in the backfield. Oddly enough, we’re getting roughly a 20 yard discount on Edwards from Dobbins, even with the duo playing similar roles in the offense. Dobbins is certainly more talented, but we can take advantage of the value Edwards presents this weekend. 

Bet 1.12 units on Gus Edwards over 42.5 rushing yards (-112) to win 1 unit

 

2020 NFL Season Record - 37-34 (+3.41 unit)

 


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