Bales' Best NBA Bet (1/13)

Welcome to my newest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for January 13, 2020. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Portland Blazers (-162) vs Sacramento Kings (+136)

The Portland Blazers travel to Sacramento to play the Kings in a west coast matchup tonight. The Blazers are 3.5 point favorites in a game set at 236.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 120 points. 

CJ McCollum is coming off of an outstanding season, averaging 22.2 points, 4.2 rebounds,  and 4.4 assists in 36.5 minutes per game over 70 contests.  He flashed elite scoring potential, recording 35+ points in 5 games, including a pair of games with 41 points. 

McCollum’s found more success this season. Through 10 games, he’s averaging 28.1 points with 4.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.6 steals in 34.5 minutes per game. McCollum also leads Portland in shot attempts (20.8) and three-point attempts (11.0) per game, while ranking second in free throw attempts (3.9) per game. He’s posted 26+ points in 6 of his 10 games, including a 44 point performance against the Houston Rockets. 

McCollum will continue to see a usage rating in the high-20%. It has the potential to shift north of 30%, as well. He’s expected to play minutes in the mid- to high-30s, giving him ample opportunities to score against a weak Sacramento defense.  

The Kings currently rank eighth in the NBA in pace and last in defensive efficiency. They have struggled against scoring shooting guards, as well, allowing a league-high 27.7 points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros. McCollum only needed 29.2 minutes to score 37 points against Sacramento earlier this season. 

Although I don’t expect McCollum to score 1.27 points per minute in this matchup, this total is far too low for his new role in the offense. He’s likely to continue to see 20+ shot attempts in this game and should be an efficient option, as Sacramento lacks the defense to slow him down. McCollum boasts 40+ point upside in this matchup, and we can take the advantage of a total set in the mid-20s. 

Bet 1.08 units on CJ McCollum over 25.5 points (-108) to win 1 unit