Bales' Best NBA Bet (1/22)

Welcome to my latest edition of Bales' Best NBA Bets. In this article, I will outline my favorite bet for January 22, 2021. You can also find all of Bet Karma's staff bets through our NBA Premium Package. 

 

Atlanta Hawks (-230) vs Minnesota Wolves (+188)

The Atlanta Hawks and Minnesota Wolves will face off in one of the fastest-paced games on the slate. The Hawks are 6 point favorites in a game set at 225.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 115.8 points tonight. 

Clint Capela performed well over 39 games with the Houston Rockets last season. He averaged 13.9 points, 13.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.8 blocks in 32.8 minutes per game. He quietly posted 20+ points in 6 games and 15+ rebounds in 16 contests. 

Capela’s found more success through 12 games with Atlanta this season. He’s averaging 14.3 points, 14.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 1.7 blocks in only 29.4 minutes per game. Capela’s caught fire recently, as well, playing 37+ minutes in each of his last 3 games. He’s averaging 45 points, rebounds, and assists per game over that span. 

Capela’s surprisingly seen a usage rating between 22-25% in each of his last 3 games, and that could continue tonight. He isn’t a player that will rely on assists for this prop, though, as he boasts 20-20 double-double potential. Capela’s minutes are likely to sit in the mid- to high-30s once again tonight. Danilo Gallinari is doubtful to play tonight, while De’Andre Hunter is questionable. If Hunter is out, as well, Capela’s minutes will be a bit more guaranteed. 

Capela gets an elite matchup against Minnesota tonight. They rank eighth in the NBA in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota’s allowing a league-high 27.1 points and 5.6 assists per game to opposing centers. They also rank in the bottom half of the NBA in rebounds allowed (15.2) to centers. 

This is a matchup Capela can take advantage of. He’s recorded 23+ points and 15+ rebounds in each of his last 3 games, including a game with 27 points, 26 rebounds, and 2 assists. This total is set oddly low for Capela’s current role in the offense, as Atlanta continues to deal with a number of injuries throughout their rotation. Capela also posted 23 points with 15 rebounds and 2 assists in his only matchup against Minnesota this season, and we could see similar results tonight. 

Bet 1.1 units on Clint Capela over 33.5 points, rebounds, and assists (-110) to win 1 unit