What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my Prop Bets article. In this article, I will be outlining one of my favorite prop bets of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
All prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
Aaron Rodgers OVER 279.5 passing yards -120 1.20 units to win 1 unit:
Rodgers has been playing at an MVP rate all season and looks to solidify himself as the league's best today going up against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We are expecting a close and exciting game as the Packers are only 3.5-point favorites at home. If you know me from the DFSkarma and the Betkarma discords or have been following along with my NFL prop bets all season, you would know I don't normally like playing the projected favorite team's Quarterback over passing yards. There is always the risk of game script ruining a prop when it is about to hit going into the fourth quarter and he only passes a couple more times. This time is different and why we can't blindly follow game scripts.
Rodgers is averaging 268.7 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions per game this season. He has gone over 280 passing yards 10 out of 16 games this season. He never saw a game passing between 240-283 passing yards. He either went over or way under. In the games he went under, the average point differential was 19.6 points., leading to a 5-1 record in those games. The lone loss coming against Tampa earlier in the season when the Packers got completely embarrassed. After going up 10-0, they ended up losing 38-10, with Rodgers passing for 160 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He did not play the fourth quarter of the game due to a blowout. This is something we rarely see in the NFL.
Now let's take a dive into the games he under 280 passing yards. We can remove the outlier game against Tampa earlier in the season. In those games, the Packers rushed for an average of 189 yards. All but one game, week 17, did they rush for more than 180 yards. The Packers are going to put up yards every game. They are comfortable running the football at a high rate, as long as the ground game is working. In those five games where Rodgers went under with a victory, three of those teams were in the bottom half in rushing yards per game. As well, four of those games, where he went under, were the four most rushing yards accumulated for the Packers in a game this regular season. The moral of the story; Rodgers will pass while leading if his run game can't get moving. According to Sharp football stats, Green Bay throws the ball at the second-highest rate while winning in the second half between 3 and 14 points, only trailing the Bills.
Why did I continue to harp on the running game when this is a passing prop? Well, the Bucs are one of, if not the best, run defense in the league. As we outlined earlier, a bad running game for the Packers means they will continue to throw the ball with the lead. The Bucs only allow 0.85 rushing yards before contact, this leading to a league-best 3.6 yards per carry allowed and only 80 rushing yards per game allowed. They are also only allowing 25% of yards against them to come from the running game, which is also a league-high. This should lead to a bad rushing performance, meaning a great game from Rodgers as he looks to go to his second Superbowl of his long hall of fame career.
If you are using a book that allows Same Game Parlays. You can pair him with Aaron Jones under for a potentially higher payout.