Joey's NBA Prop Bet Monday 01/25/21
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my prop bets article. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite prop bet of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
Premium: 33-27 +7.53 units
Free Plays: 3-5 -2.14 units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
We were betting lighter to start the season but we can start becoming a lot more confident in our plays moving forward. Early season NBA is always annoying.
Jerami Grant OVER 21.5 Points -110 1.10 units to win 1 unit:
Grant has found himself in a shooting slump these last couple of games. After starting the year averaging 25.4 points per game on 47.3% shooting, he has fallen to an average of 16.0 points per game on 20.6% shooting. We can’t let recency bias dictate our plays. Grant is currently priced at a discount because of this. Obviously, there is no guarantee that he will break his shooting slump tonight, but after two games shooting a combined 20.6% (7/34) he is bound to go back to average eventually.
The key to picking points props and finding out if that player can perform at a sustainable pace is volume. You can’t just look at points per game only to make your decisions. In the last two games, he is shooting 17.0 FGAs per game, 7.5 3s per game, and 8.5 FTAs per game. This compared to 18.9 FGAs per game, 6.8 3s per game, and 5.7 FTAs per game. While his field goal attempts have decreased by two a game, this is evened out by his 3-point attempts and free throw attempts. Him getting to the line more and shooting more 3s actually puts him in a better situation than he was before.
Tonight, he will face off against the 76ers, who aren’t the same defensive presence that they once were. The 76ers are allowing the 8th most points per game (114.3), and the 6th highest FG% (47.8%). They do have the 3rd best defensive efficiency (106.3), but that gets sacrificed with the 3rd highest pace (103) in the league. Grant should be guarded by Tobias Harris, who allows the second-highest defended field goal % on his team; only behind Joel Embiid. As long as he doesn’t have another awful shooting night this should be a great bounce-back game for him tonight.