NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/2)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the live number, opening number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Toronto Raptors opened as a 5.5 point favorite against the Orlando Magic tonight. This game also opened with the lowest game total on the slate at 214.5 points. The line has since moved 1-point in favor of Toronto, while the game total has increased 1.5 points. Ultimately, the Raptors implied team total has shifted from 110 to 111.25 while the Magic’s has increased from 104.5 to only 104.75.
The lack of major line movement is far from shocking, as Toronto and Orlando have been two of the most overvalued teams in the NBA this season. They enter this game with 7-13 and 9-12 records ATS, respectively. Neither team has fared well at home or on the road or as favorites or underdogs.
Oddly enough, they boast nearly identical records in terms of their over/under success. Both teams own a 50% over rate to go along with a 50% under rate. Both teams feature a slightly negative total +/-, though. With that being said, Orlando’s home games have gone under 70% of the time while Toronto’s away games have gone over 55.6% of the time.
Ultimately, the total has gained 1.5 points since open, allowing us to take advantage of a player prop tonight. Fred VanVleet’s current rebounding total is set at 3.5 rebounds tonight. Our projections have him set at 4.4 rebounds, giving him an A+ Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
VanVleet’s been a solid rebounding guard throughout the season, averaging 4.4 rebounds in 35.6 minutes per game. He’s also posted 4+ rebounds in 8 of his last 9 contests, although he’s coming off of a 2 rebound performance against Orlando.
VanVleet should return to his full minutes after getting a bit of time off in somewhat of a blowout in his last game, making him one of our prop predictors best bets on the night.
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