NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/4)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the live number, opening number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Los Angeles Lakers opened as 5 point home favorites against the Denver Nuggets in a battle of two of the best Western Conference teams. There hasn’t been any movement on the spread thus far. This game opened with the lowest game total on the slate at 219.5 points, and the total has already dropped 3 points. Ultimately, Denver’s team total dropped from 107.25 to 105.75 while Los Angeles’ dipped from 112.25 to 110.75.
These teams have been average against the spread (ATS) this season. They boast nearly identical records, as the Lakers are 11-11 ATS and the Nuggets are 10-10. Los Angeles has struggled at home, posting a 3-5 home ATS record. Denver, on the other hand, has traveled well, recording a 6-4 road ATS record. Oddly enough, the Nuggets have struggled to cover as underdogs, though, covering in only 33% of those games.
The game total is a bit more interesting in this contest. Denver’s found the over in 75% of their games, leading the NBA. Los Angeles has been the exact opposite. They under’s hit in 73% of their games, which is also the highest in the NBA. Overall, the Lakers’ over/under record sits at 6-16 while the Nuggets’ is 15-5.
There is one prop that sticks out via the Karma Prop Predictor in this game. Will Barton’s rebounding total is set at 3.5 rebounds, although he projects for 4.7 rebounds in our projections, resulting in an A+ Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Barton’s seen success through 20 games this season. He’s averaging 4.0 rebounds in 28.3 minutes per game. Overall, he’s averaging 5.0 rebounds on a per-36 minute basis this season. Barton’s struggled to rebound in recent games, although he’s posted 4+ rebounds in 4 of his last 10 games while playing inconsistent minutes.
With Gary Harris and PJ Dozier out tonight, Barton is expected to record 30+ minutes tonight. He has the potential to play upwards of 40 minutes if Denver allows him, and he’s one of our Prop Predictors top bets on this slate.
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