Joey's NBA Prop Bets Thursday 02/04/21
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my prop bets. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite prop bet of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets, make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
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Premium: 46-38 +11.43 units
Free Plays: 5-6 -1.34 units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
We were betting lighter to start the season but we can start becoming a lot more confident in our plays moving forward. Early season NBA is always annoying.
Joel Embiid OVER 26.5 Points -110 1.10 units to win 1 unit: Joel Embiid is not on the injury report but there is always the risk that he sits out tonight. If that is the case, lock in Tobias Harris over 18.5 points instead. Then this prop will just get canceled. Embiid has been on an MVP pace so far this season and looks to build on it tonight against a poor Trailblazers defense. Embiid is averaging 28.6 points per game and 11.1 rebounds per game. Embiid has gone over this mark in the last seven games he has played more than 25 minutes. He is averaging close to 20 FGAs per game and 15 FTAs per game over the last 7 games as well. He is getting to the rim and free throw line enough for him to dominate tonight.
This Trailblazers team was already a liability defensively before all the injuries and now will be missing 5 of their normal starters and will be rolling out backups. Embiid should be matched up against Enes Kanter for a majority for the game. They have the second-worst defensive efficiency in the league and are in the top half of the league in pace. They also allow the 6th most points in the league to centers. While also giving up the bottom half of the league in second-chance points and points in the paint. Embiid should have no issues with this matchup tonight.
The main risk on this play is a blowout where Embiid barely plays in the fourth quarter. You can hedge this play with either Philly -10, or taking an alt line for -16 or more to make sure you don't lose money in case the game gets out of hand.