NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/5)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the live number, opening number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Minnesota Wolves opened as slim 1.5 point road favorite over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight. The line has since moved by 0.5 points towards the injured Oklahoma City team. The game total opened at only 218.5 points, although it’s increased by 1.5 points throughout the day. Minnesota’s team total has moved from 110 to 110.5 points, while Oklahoma City’s shifted from 108.5 to 109.5.
The Thunder have quietly been one of the better teams against the spread (ATS) this season. They boast an 11-9 ATS record, ranking sixth in the NBA in cover percentage. The Wolves only boast a 10-11 ATS record this season. With that being said, Oklahoma City is only 3-6 ATS at home, while Minnesota is 4-6 ATS on the road.
The game total increasing is interesting tonight. Oklahoma City's found the over in 55% of their games, while Minnesotas only hit the over in 42.9% of their contests. The Thunder have only gone over in their games by an average of 1.3 points, while Minnesota’s games go under by an average of 4.8 points.
This game features a couple of solid prop bets via the Karma Prop Predictor, but one sticks out in particular. Naz Reid’s rebounding prop is set at 6.5 rebounds, although he’s projected at 7.8 rebounds by Karma. The difference is enough to give this prop an A grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Reid’s found plenty of success through 19 games this season. He’s averaging 5.0 rebounds in only 22.1 minutes per game. Overall, he’s averaging 8.1 rebounds on a per-36 minute basis this season. Reid returned to big minutes in his last game, recording 11 rebounds in 32 minutes against the San Antonio Spurs.
He’ll continue to minutes in the high-20s or low-30s with Karl-Anthony Towns injured. Reid also gets a plus matchup against the Thunder, making him a strong bet for the over tonight.
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