Joey's NFL Primetime Props (Super Bowl 55)
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Premium: 53-41 +16.20 units
Free Plays: 6-6 -0.34 units
All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 325.5 passing yards -110 1.10 units to win 1 unit: Mahomes is coming off another amazing season. He continues to shine in the NFL and it seems like there is no stopping him as he looks for his second Super Bowl victory in his third year as a starter. It is incredible what he has been able to accomplish in such a juvenile stage of his career. This is a potentially huge game in the rankings for the greatest of all time and perhaps the last time these two greats will play each other in the postseason. This game could potentially decide 20 years down the road who the goat is. Now let’s get back to the prop though, I know you guys came to gamble.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to have a tough time getting anything going in the run game, against one of the best run defenses in the league. So, therefore you know they are going to be pass-heavy. Even potentially at a higher rate than normal. The Chiefs are one of those teams that do not abandon the passing game and continue to throw short passes when they are leading. Especially against great run defenses like the Bucs. It is not always about playing a top 5 run defense, it is about can the Chiefs run the ball effectively during the game. If the run game is working they will stick to it, but if the run game is not then they will go to the short pass game with Kelce or one of the speedy WRs who can make a play in the open space.
Mahomes has been able to put up over 325.5 passing yards in 7 out of 15 games this regular season and neither of the games so far in the postseason. In one game he was injured to end the game, the other was the Bills game where the Chiefs were blowing them out. The Chiefs only had the ball once to begin the 4th quarter, then to end the game with 3 minutes left. This was due to a successful onside kick. The game was out of hand which is not something I expect on Sunday, but if that were to occur it would kill every over in the passing game as blowouts do. There is only a 3 point spread and I doubt Brady would get blown out in the super bowl. Flasing back to earlier in the season, we witnessed one of the best first quarter showings in a long time. As the Bucs weren’t able to come close to containing Tyreek Hill. If that is the case again this game will become a shootout and Mahomes will have no issues going over. I am sure in the super bowl they will not let Hill run all over them again. Look for Mahomes to spread the ball around to his many playmakers.