NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/8)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the live number, opening number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Memphis Grizzlies opened as 3 point home underdogs against the Toronto Raptors. The line shifted 1 point towards Memphis early throughout the day. This game also opened with one of the higher totals on the slate (224 points). It’s since dropped to 222 points, though. Ultimately, the Raptors team total dropped from 113.5 points to 112, while the Grizzlies has dipped from 110.5 points to 110.
Memphis has found success against the spread (ATS) throughout the season, boasts a 10-8 ATS record. The same can’t be said for Toronto, who are 9-14 ATS this season, ranking second-last in the NBA. The Raptors have struggled on the road, as well, where they’ve covered at only a 41.7% rate. With that being said, Memphis has only covered 44.4% of the time at home.
These teams are also essentially opposites in terms of the game total. Toronto boasts a 13-10 over/under record, hitting the over 56.5% of the time. Memphis, on the other hand, is 8-10, finding the over only 44.4% of the time. The Grizzlies have consistently found the under at home, where they own a 2-7 over/under record, beating the under by an average of 8.7 points. Toronto’s recorded an 8-4 over/under record on the road, going over by an average of 7.4 points, making this one of the most interesting games on the slate in terms of trends.
There are two props that feature an A Karma Grade in this contest. Fred VanVleet’s rebounding total is set at 3.5, although his Karma Projection is set at 4.3 rebounds. Kyle Lowry is in a similar position. His rebounding prop is set at 4.5, while he boasts a Karma Projection of 5.4 rebounds.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
VanVleet and Lowry have both found rebounding success throughout the season. They’re averaging 4.4 and 6.0 rebounds in 36.1 minutes per game, respectively. VanVleet’s recorded 4+ rebounds in 8 of his last 10 games, as well. Lowry’s posted 5+ rebounds in 7 of his last 8 games, as well.
These two guards are both locked into major minutes for Toronto on a nightly basis. They’re both outstanding rebounding options for their positions. Either can be bet tonight, although I slightly favor VanVleet, as does our Prop Predictor.
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