NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/10)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the live number, opening number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Denver Nuggets opened as 9.5 point home favorites against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. The line continues to sit at -9.5 points, as well. The same can’t be said for the game total that opened at 225 points but has since dropped to 219.5 points. The Nuggets team total dipped from 117.25 to 114.5 points, while the Cavs dropped from 107.75 to 105.
Both teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. Denver enters this game with a 10-13 ATS record. Cleveland’s been slightly less successful, featuring a 10-15 ATS record this season. Surprisingly, the Nuggets have struggled ATS in Denver this season, although the Cavs feature the worst road ATS win percentage (27.3%) in the NBA.
These teams are near opposites in terms of the game total. Denver’s hit the over at a league-high 73.9% of the time, while Cleveland ranks near the bottom of the NBA in over percentage (41.7%). They feature opposite over/under records at home and on the road, as Denver’s 8-3 at home while Cleveland’s 3-8 on the road.
With the total dropping, this game features an interesting spot for prop betting. Will Barton’s rebounds are set at 3.5, although his Karma Projection sits at 4.4. This prop bet earns an A+ Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Barton’s averaging 3.7 rebounds in only 29.4 minutes per game this season. Surprisingly, he’s averaging only 2.5 rebounds in 37.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Barton’s averaging 4.5 rebounds on a per-36 minute basis this season, which is down from his 6.1 career-average.
His recent struggles are a bit concerning, although Barton will continue to play minutes in the high-30s with Gary Harris and PJ Dozier out. There should be plenty of opportunities against a struggling Cleveland team.
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