NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/11)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and the difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Miami Heat opened as 3 point road favorites against an injured Houston Rockets team. The line has shifted 0.5 points towards Houston early in the day. This contest opened with one of the lowest game totals on the slate at 219.5 points, although it’s dropped 3.5 points already. Overall, Miami’s team total dropped from 111.25 points to 109.25, while Houston’s dipped from 108.25 points to 106.75.
Neither team’s found success against the spread (ATS) this season. Miami ranks last in the NFL in cover percentage (34.8%), possessing an 8-15-1 ATS record. Houston hasn’t been much better, recording a 10-14 ATS record this season. The Rockets have covered only 30% of the time at home, while the Heat have covered 40% on the road.
These are two teams that have found the under more often than not this season. Miami’s under percentage sits at 54.2% while Houston boasts a 65.2% under percentage. The Rockets own a league-high 88.9% under percentage at home, as well, recording a 1-8-1 over/under record in Houston. Miami’s quietly found the over 60% of the time on the road, though.
There are a number of great prop bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. The top one, though, involved Kelly Olynyk. His rebounding total is set at 4.5 rebounds, although his Karma projection sits at 6.1. This prop boasts an A+ Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Olynyk’s performed well this season, averaging 5.5 rebounds in 26.2 minutes per game through 23 contests. He’s also averaging 6.6 rebounds in only 25.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Olynyk’s quietly recorded 5+ rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games.
Houston’s held centers back in terms of rebounds, although they’ve struggled against power forwards. Olynyk’s found time at center this season, but he spends the majority of his minutes at power forward. It’s no surprise that he’s our Prop Predictor’s favorite bet in this game.
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