NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/13)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Indiana Pacers opened as 1.5 point road favorites against the Atlanta Hawks, and the line hasn’t moved at this point. This game opened the second-highest game total on the slate at 226.5 points. It’s dropped 1.5 points since, sitting at 225 points. The Pacers team total dipped from 114 points to 113.25, while the Hawks has dropped from 112.5 points to 111.75.
Atlanta’s found more success against the spread (ATS), covering 52% of the time this season. Indiana’s only covered 46.2% of the time thus far. The Pacers have been slightly better on the road, where they boast a 6-5 ATS record. The Hawks, on the other hand, have struggled at home, where they own a 6-8 ATS record this season.
Indiana’s seen mixed results in terms of the game total, finding the over 52% of the time. Atlanta’s hit the under at the third-highest rate in the NBA (64%) this season, including 57.1% of the time at home. Indiana owns a 5-5-1 over/under record on the road.
This is a small slate, although this game features one prop bet with an A+ Karma Grade. Clint Capela’s assist total is set at 0.5 assists, and he boasts a Karma Projection of 1.1 assists. There’s certainly risk involved with totals this low, but the grade stands.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Capela’s averaging 1.0 assist in 28.5 minutes per game through 22 contests this season. That total has decreased to only 0.6 in 25.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Overall, Capela’s recorded an assist in 5 of his last 9 games, and he’s struggled with a lack of minutes in recent contests.
His minutes continue to be a bit unknown on a nightly basis, although they’re expected to sit in the high-20s tonight. As mentioned above, there’s always risk when dealing with such low totals, although our Prop Predictor loves Capela to find the over in this contest.
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