NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/19)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Toronto Raptors opened as 3.5 point road favorites against the Minnesota Wolves. That line has shifted 1 point toward Minnesota, leaving Toronto as a 2.5 point favorite. The game total has dropped from 231.5 points at open to 226 points throughout the day. Toronto’s team total dipped from 117.5 points to 114.25, while Minnesota’s shifted from 114 points to 111.75.
The Raptors have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in only 44.8% of their games. The Wolves have also struggled, although they’ve been slightly better. They’ve covered in 50% of their contests this season. Toronto does own a 9-8 ATS record on the road, while Minneota’s recorded a 7-7 home ATS record.
Toronto’s a team that’s consistently found the over in their contests. They’ve hit the over 58.6% of the time this season. Minnesota’s only hit the over in 48.3% of their games thus far. More importantly, the Raptors boasts a 12-5 over/under record on the road this season. Minnesota, on the other hand, owns a 7-7 over/under record at home.
There are a few solid prop bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. The best one is Ricky Rubio under 4.5 rebounds. Our Karma Projection sets him at only 3.7 rebounds tonight, giving this bet an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Rubio is a solid rebounding guard, averaging 3.4 rebounds in only 25.1 minutes per game through 27 contests. He’s averaging 30.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days, although his rebounding total hasn’t increased, sitting at only 3.3 rebounds per game. Overall, Rubio’s posted fewer than 5 rebounds in each of his last 8 games.
Rubio’s expected to continue to play minutes in the high-20s with D’Angelo Russell out. With that being said, Karl-Anthony Towns continues to play big minutes, and he boasts one of the highest total rebound percentages (17.1%) on the team. Rubio recorded only 1 rebound in 29.4 minutes in his only matchup against Toronto this season, and it’s easy to see why the Prop Predictor likes his under tonight.
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