NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/20)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Golden State Warriors opened as -2 point road favorites against the Charlotte Hornets today. The line hasn’t shifted thus far. This game also opened at 230.5 points, increasing 4 points throughout the day. Ultimately, Golden State’s team total shifted from 116.25 points to 118.25, while Charlotte’s increased from 114.25 points to 116.25.
The Warriors have been a mediocre team against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 50% of their games. The Hornets have been slightly better, covering in 55.6% of their contests this season. Charlotte boasts an 8-7-1 home ATS record. Golden State’s struggled ATS on the road, recording a 5-8 record thus far.
Both teams own similar over/under records this season. Charlotte’s hit the over in 51.8% of their games, while Golden State’s found it in only 46.7%. Surprisingly, the Hornets have only gone over the game total in 40% of their home games, which is one of the lowest percentages in the NBA. The Warriors, on the other hand, have hit the over in 53.8% of their road games.
There’s one prop that sticks out from our Prop Predictor in this game. Stephen Curry’s rebound total is set at 4.5, although his Karma Projection sits at 6.3. This gives this play an A+ Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Curry’s averaging 5.4 rebounds in 34.1 minutes per game through 30 contests this season. That’s remained steady over the last 10 days, as he’s averaging 5.2 rebounds in 35.2 minutes per game over that span. Curry’s rebounds have been inconsistent in recent games, although he’s posted 7 in each of his last 2 contests.
Curry gets a plus matchup, as Charlotte has struggled against rebounding point guards this season. Curry’s expected to continue to play around 35 minutes tonight. His rebounding total is set at a bit low and makes the best play in this game, according to our Prop Predictor.
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