Joey's NBA Prop Bets Thursday 02/25/2021
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Premium: 61-46 +22.86 units
Free Plays: 7-11 -4.48 units
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All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
Marvin Bagley UNDER 15.5 points -130 1.30 unit to win 1 unit: Bagley was slowly starting to come into his own while the Kings were dealing with a few injuries in their starting lineup, but it looks like the Kings are fully healthy now. This leaves Bagley as the 4th scoring option in the starting lineup and the 5th scoring option on the team behind Tyrese Haliburton. Bagley is averaging 13.5 points per game this season, on 11.1 FGAs, 2.8 3 point attempts, and 3.0 FTs per game. In the two games without Harrison Barnes and without Richaun Holmes, Bagley was able to average 22.5 PPG on 15.5 FGAs and 5.5 FTAs. Those numbers skyrocketed compared to the 24 games he has played this season with Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes. He averages 12.4 PPG, on 10.5 FGAs and 2.7 FTAs. Those numbers are way closer to his averages. He has gone over 15.5 points seven times, a 29% rate, with both of those two players active mainly due to a spike in volume or field goal %.
The Kings are going up against a stout New York Knicks defense, who I believe have shocked the league with how well they have been playing this season. The Knicks are playing at the slowest pace in the league, while also giving up the third least amount of points per possession. The Kings play slightly above average in pace and offensive rating, while they seem to match a similar pace to the opponent they are playing. So this should be a slow-paced low scoring game. As the fourth or fifth scoring option on this team he should struggle to go over tonight.