NBA Trends and Line Movement (2/26)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Toronto Raptors opened as 7 point home favorites against the Houston Rockets tonight. The line has shifted 1 point towards Toronto, making them 8 point favorites. The game total opened at 220 points, moving to 220.5 throughout the day. Overall, Houston’s team total dropped from 106.5 to 106.25, while Toronto’s increased from 113.5 to 114.25.
The Raptors and Rockets have both struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. Toronto’s covered in 45.5% of their games, while Houston’s covered in only 36.7% of theirs. The Raptors have also struggled at home, where they own a 5-9 ATS record. Houston, on the other hand, has been slightly better on the road, where they’ve gone 8-10 ATS.
These teams have been opposites in terms of the game total. Toronto’s gone over in 54.5% of their games, while Houston’s gone under in 62.1% of theirs. The Raptors have quietly found the under in their home games, though, hitting it in 64.3% of their games in Toronto. Continuing the trend, the Rockets have gone over in 55.6% of their road games this season.
There are a couple of decent prop bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor. The one that sticks out is John Wall over 3.5 rebounds, though. His Karma Projection currently sits at 4.3 rebounds, giving this bet an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Wall’s averaging 3.5 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game through 21 games this season. Surprisingly, he’s only averaging 2.5 rebounds in 31.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s recorded fewer than 4 rebounds in each of his last 5 games, including 7 of his last 10.
Houston continues to run a small-ball lineup, giving Wall ample opportunities for rebounds. This is also a plus matchup for his prop bet. Although it isn’t quite an A+ Karma Grade, this is still a great bet according to our Prop Predictor.
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