NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/1)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Houston Rockets opened as -5.5 point home favorites against the Cleveland Cavaliers. With multiple guys questionable tonight, the lines shifted 3.5 points towards Cleveland since open. The game total opened at 217.5 points but dropped to 217 points throughout the day. Cleveland’s team total increased from 106 to 107.5, while Houston’s dropped from 111.5 to 109.5.
Both teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. The Rockets have covered in a league-low 34.4% of their games thus far. The Cavs haven’t been much better, ranking second-last in the NBA in cover percentage (38.2%). Houston’s also struggled at home, posting a 3-10 ATS record. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland hasn’t been better on the road, where they own a 4-12 ATS record this season.
These are two teams that have consistently found the under in their contests. The Rockets have hit the under in 61.3% of their games, while the Cavs own a 57.6% under percentage. Houston’s hit the under in a league-high 91.7% of their home games. Cleveland’s also hit the under in 56.2% of their road games.
Even with the under being the trend, there’s a prop our Prop Predictor likes tonight. Collin Sexton’s assist total is set at 3.5, although he boasts a Karma Projection of 4.6. This gives it an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Sexton’s averaging 4.1 assists in 35.6 minutes per game through 29 games this season. He’s only averaging 3.6 assists in 39 minutes per game over the last 10 days, though. Sexton’s posted 4+ assists in 6 of his last 10 games. With that being said, he’s only eclipsed that mark in 1 of his last 4 contests.
As always, Sexton will be locked into major minutes for the Cavs. He boasts a usage rating in the high-20s, and it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor likes this play in a plus matchup.
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