NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/3)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Brooklyn Nets opened as 7.5 point favorites against the Houston Rockets. The line’s shifted 2.5 points towards the Nets, as they’re now 10 point favorites. This game opened at 226.5 points and increased to 228.5 throughout the day. Brooklyn’s team total has increased from 117 to 119.25, while Houston’s dropped from 109.5 to 109.25.
Brooklyn’s found success against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 52.8% of their games this season. Houston hasn’t found the same success, covering in a league-low 33.3% of their contests. The Rockets have been even worse at home, where they own a 3-11 ATS record this season. The Nets, on the other hand, own a 9-8 road ATS record.
Brooklyn’s consistently found the over this season, while Houston’s consistently hit the under. Overall, the Nets have hit the over in 66.7% of their games. The Rockets have found the under in 62.5% of their contests, though. Houston’s hit the under in a league-high 92.3% of their home games. Brooklyn ranks second in the NBA, finding the over in 70.6% of their road contests.
This is an interesting game with one bet that sticks out above the rest to our Prop Predictor. Kyrie Irving’s rebounding total is set at 4.5, but he owns a Karma Projection of 5.5. This bet earns an A Karma Grade tonight.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Irving’s averaging 4.8 rebounds in 35.4 minutes per game through 25 games this season. His numbers are up a bit recently, as he’s averaging 5.0 rebounds in 37.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Irving’s posted 5+ rebounds in each of his last 3 games.
He’s tentatively expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-30s tonight. Houston runs a small-ball lineup, allowing for plenty of rebounding opportunities for players like Irving. It’s far from a surprise that our Prop Predictor loves this bet.
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