NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/4)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The New York Knicks opened as -5 point home favorites against the Detroit Pistons. The line has shifted 2 points in New York’s favor throughout the day, as they’re now -7 point favorites. The game total opened at 210.5 points but dropped to 208 thus far. The Pistons team total dropped from 102.75 to 100.5, while the Knicks dipped from 107.75 to 107.5.
Both teams have been above-average against the spread (ATS) this season. Detroit’s covered in 52.9% of their games, while New York’s covered in 55.6% of theirs. The Pistons have been slightly worse on the road with the Knicks being slightly better at home, although roughly only 3% in either direction.
Both teams have found the under more often than not, as well. Detroit’s hit the under in 51.4% of their games, while New York’s found the under in a league-high 63.9% of theirs. Surprisingly, the Pistons have hit the over in 57.9% of their road games. New York’s found the over more often at home, where they’ve hit the under in only 52.9% of their contests.
This game features one prop bet that is sticking out more than the rest to our Prop Predictor. Nerlens Noel’s assist total is set at 1.5, and our Karma Projection has him set at 0.9 assists tonight. This gives the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Noel’s averaging only 0.6 assists in 21.3 minutes per game this season. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 1.0 assist in 32.1 minutes per game. He’s posted 2 assists in each of his last 2 games but has found the under in 7 of his last 10 contests.
Noel’s locked into major minutes for New York, as he’ll continue to play 35+ minutes tonight. With that being said, he isn’t the focal point of the offense, and won’t have many assist opportunities. Although he’s hit the over recently, it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under tonight.
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