Frank's Dice Roll - NHL Bets for 3/9/21

Welcome to my latest edition of the NHL dice roll. I strive to spotlight betting angles to exploit, and taking a look at today's schedule, there are 18 teams taking to the ice. When I find a wager that I feel strong enough to play myself, I post it on Bet Karma.
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Season record 22-15, +10.54 units.
There are 3 plays I like from tonight's NHL slate:
(all lines shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Philadelphia PL -1.5 goals (+105)/Play 2 units to win 2.1 units

The Flyers are seventh best at scoring goals in the NHL so far this season, averaging 3.23 goals per contest and have home ice for this game. On the other side of the fence is Buffalo, a team riding a seven-game losing streak and owns a 4-7-1 road record. To make matters worse for the Sabres, they are the league's third-worst team in goal differential at minus-23. I do not see Buffalo staying within 2 goals of Philadelphia here, if they even score at all.

 

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Tampa Bay PL -1.5 goals (-125)/Play 1.25 units to win 1 unit 

Playing away from home doesn't scare me off the Lightning with the 8-3-2 record they have accumulated on road ice. Detroit has lost three games in a row, and like I noted above with the Sabres, have an even worse minus-33 goal differential in their games. Tampa Bay has the highest goals per game average at 3.61 every time they take the ice, and is 2-0 head-to-head with Detroit, covering the spread both times. I don't think the Red Wings can stop the Lightning from scoring on them.


Nashville/Carolina U 5.5 goals (-130)/Play 1.30 units to win 1 unit 

The Hurricanes' advantage in this game is on the powerplay, where they have the league's fourth best unit, converting 29.5% of the time. One of the Predators' top weaknesses is killing off penaties, as they sit third-worst in the league at 70.2% heading into tonight's game. Nashville is coming off four straight games in which the goal total has gone over the Vegas total. Carolina has done the same in three straight games. I say this game bucks those trends and stays under the total.