Joey's NBA Prop Bets Thursday 03/11/2021
What’s up Karma Nation! Welcome to another edition of my prop bets. In this article, I will be outlining my favorite prop bet of the day. To find my other prop bets and all of the other staff’s favorite bets, make sure to sign up for the Premium package.
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Premium: 65-47 +25.76 units
Free Plays: 8-12 -4.58 units
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All Prop lines are based on DraftKings Sportsbook. Lines may vary based on the time you are reading this or if you are using a different sportsbook.
Jimmy Butler to record a triple-double +350 0.5 units to win 1.75 units: The Heat will be without Bam Adebayo for another game as he recovers from injury. This gives us extremely good value for Jimmy Butler's triple-double ceiling. Last game without Bam he put up 29 points 3 rebounds and 9 assists. These 3 rebounds were tied for the lowest total of the season. Bam rarely misses games, so we don't have much data on this. If you remove the last game from the data; Butler is averaging 22.25 points, 9.13 rebounds, and 9.98 assists per 36 minutes with Bam and Leanard off the floor and Olynyk on the floor with 126 minutes of data this season. These numbers should not give us +350 odds for a triple-double. The upside of a triple-double outweighs how bad the odds are.