NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/12)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Miami Heat opened as 2.5 point road favorites against the Chicago Bulls. The line’s shifted slightly toward Chicago, leaving Miami as a 2 point favorite. The game total opened at 221.5 points but dipped to 220.5 throughout the day. Miami’s team total dropped from 112 to 111.25, while Chicago’s decreased from 109.5 to 109.25.
Chicago’s looked outstanding against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 57.1% of their games. Miami, on the other hand, has struggled thus far, covering in 44.4% of their contests. Surprisingly, the Bulls have covered in only 42.1% of their home games this season. The Heat have been slightly better on the road, covering in half of their road contests.
These teams are opposite in terms of the total. Chicago’s hit the over in 57.1% of their games, while Miami’s found the under in 54% of theirs. The Bulls have posted a similar percentage at home with Miami posting a 9-9 over/under record on the road this season.
This game features a couple of outstanding prop bets according to our Prop Predictor. Kendrick Nunn’s assist total is set at 3.5, but he owns a Karma Projection of only 2.6. The difference garners an A+ Karma Grade for this bet.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Nunn’s averaging 2.7 assists in 29.5 minutes per game through 29 games. His assists have dropped in recent games, though. He’s posted fewer than 4 assists in 7 of his last 10 games.
Nunn’s expected to play 25-30 minutes tonight. He isn’t the primary ball-handler, though, as Jimmy Butler has taken over the offense with Bam Adebayo out. Nunn certainly boasts upside potential in terms of assists, but it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves he under tonight.
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