NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/15)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Charlotte Hornets opened as -3 point home favorites against the Sacramento Kings. The lines shifted slightly towards Charlotte, as they are now -3.5 point favorites. The game total opened at 239.5 points but hasn’t moved yet. The King's team total dropped from 118.25 to 118, while the Hornets increased from 121.25 to 121.5.
These teams have been opposites against the spread (ATS) this season. Charlotte’s covered in 55.6% of their games thus far, while Sacramento’s covered in only 42.1% of theirs. The Hornets boast the same cover percentage at home, although the Kings have quietly covered in 52.9% of their road games this season.
Both teams have hit the over more often than not this season. Sacramento’s found the over in 65.8% of their games with Charlotte hitting it in 55.6% of theirs. Surprisingly, the Hornets have hit the over in only 33.3% of their home games, which is one of the lowest rates in the NBA. The Kings have hit the over in only 58.8% of their road games this season.
This game offers one prop bet that stands out above the rest. De’Aaron Fox’s line is set at 4.5 rebounds tonight. He owns a 3.7 Karma Projection, though, giving this bet an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Fox is averaging 3.4 rebounds in 34.2 minutes per game through 37 games this season. Surprisingly, he’s posted 7+ rebounds in each of his last 3 games. With that being said, he recorded 4 or fewer rebounds in 5 of his 6 games prior to his recent stretch.
Fox posted only 1 rebound in 40.3 minutes against Charlotte earlier this season. Even with his recent success, it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor is so high on the under in this bet tonight.
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