Potential 2021 March Madness Champions
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Potential 2021 March Madness Champions

Justin Bales

There are several misconceptions about March Madness. The biggest one is the idea any team that’s in has a shot to win the tournament or even make the Final Four for that matter. There really are only a handful of teams that can win the tournament each year. 


I’ve been working on baseline perimeters of several stats that help weed out the potential winners from frauds. I’m expecting to publish these perimeters in a new book before next March Madness. If you want free updates on the book, you can access them by clicking here


This article will outline the potential championship teams along with runner-ups and Final Four options. This solely outlines metrics. It doesn’t take scheduling, injuries, or other aspects into account. 


Championship Teams

According to the numbers, there are only seven teams that can win March Madness this season, and they may not be who you expect. Keep in mind, this doesn’t account for their road to the trophy, but rather that they hit all of the baseline metrics to have the potential to win. Some have a significantly better chance to win than others. 


Gonzaga (1)

Let’s get the most obvious out of the way first. Gonzaga is the clear-cut favorite to cut down the nets this season. They boast a KenPom adjusted efficiency rating of nearly 6.0 points higher than the next closest team. They also rank first in adjusted offensive efficiency and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Gonzaga has three of the best players in the country in Jalen Suggs, Corey Kispert, and Drew Timme to go along with above-average role players. The only real question mark surrounding them is their strength of schedule, although I don’t expect that to be an issue with wins over Kansas, West Virginia, Iowa, and Virginia. 


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