NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/16)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Utah Jazz opened as 4.5 point road favorites against the Boston Celtics. The line’s since shifted 0.5 points toward Boston, as Utah is currently a 4 point favorite. The game total opened at 228.5 points, increasing to 229.5 throughout the day. The Jazz team total moved from 116.5 to 116.75, while the Celtics increased from 112 to 112.75.
Utah is one of the best teams against the spread (ATS) this season. They’ve covered in 65.8% of their games thus far. Boston hasn’t played as well, covering in only 47.4% of their contests. With that being said, the Celtics boast an 11-6 home ATS record, while Utah’s road ATS record sits at 11-9.
Both of these teams have found the over slightly more often than not. Boston’s hit the over in 55.3% of their games with Utah hitting in in 51.3% of theirs. The number increases for both at home or on the road, as each team’s covered around 58% of the time in their respective position tonight.
This game offers an outstanding bet from our Prop Predictor. Rudy Gobert’s rebounding total is set at 13.5 tonight, but his Karma Projection is only 11. This gives the under an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Gobert’s averaging 13.5 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game through 38 games this season. He’s also averaging 20.5 rebounds per game since returning from the All-Star Break, although he’s coming off of a ridiculous 28 rebound performance. Gobert’s posted 13 or fewer rebounds in 5 of his last 7 contests.
Gobert’s one of the best rebounders in the NBA, but this total is set a bit high. He posted 12 rebounds in 36.3 minutes in his only matchup against Boston this season, and our Prop Predictor is projecting he comfortably goes under tonight.
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