NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/19)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The San Antonio Spurs opened as -2 point road favorites against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The lines moved 3 points toward San Antonio throughout the day, as well. The game total dipped from 216.5 points to 213. Ultimately, The Spurs' total dropped from 109.25 to 109, while the Cavs' moved from 107.25 to 104.
San Antonio’s found success against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 56.8% of their games. That hasn’t been the case for Cleveland, who’s covered in only 40% of their contests thus far. The Cavs have been significantly better at home, though, where they own an 11-9 ATS record this season. The Spurs quietly boast an 11-6 road ATS record, which is one of the best in the NBA.
Both teams have found the under more often than not this season. San Antonio’s hit the under in 59.5% of their games, while Cleveland found it in 56.4% of theirs. These teams own similar under percentages at home and on the road, as well.
This game features one bet that our Prop Predictor loves more than the rest. Collin Sexton’s assist total is set at 3.5, and he owns a Karma Projection of 4.3 assists. The difference gives the over an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Sexton’s averaging 4.3 assists in 35.6 minutes per game through 35 contests this season. He’s only averaging 2.8 assists in 32.3 minutes per game since the All-Star Break. With that being said, Sexton’s averaging 4.9 assists per game at home this season.
Sexton will continue to find 30+ minutes in a major role for Cleveland. Even with his recent struggles, his assist over is one of our Prop Predictors favorite bets.
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