NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/20)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each individual game.
The Milwaukee Bucks opened as -10 point home favorites against the San Antonio Spurs today. The line shifted 1 point toward Milwaukee during the day, as well. The game total opened at 229 points, increasing to 229.5 throughout the day. The Spurs team total dropped from 109.5 to 109.25, while the Bucks increased from 119.5 to 120.25.
San Antonio’s found significantly more success against the spread (ATS) than Milwaukee this season. The Spurs have covered in 57.9% of their games, while the Bucks have covered in only 47.5% of theirs. With that being said, Milwaukee’s quietly posted a 12-8 home ATS record this season. The Spurs have found success, boasting a 12-6 road ATS record.
These teams have been opposites in terms of the total. San Antonio’s hit the under in 57.9% of their games, while Milwaukee’s hit the over 59% of the time. Each team owns similar percentages at home or on the road, as well.
This game offers a couple of outstanding bets tonight. Jakob Poeltl’s assist total is set at 1.5, and he owns a 2.1 Karma Projection in this game. The difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Poeltl’s averaging 1.8 assists in only 24.1 minutes per game through 38 contests this season. He’s averaging 2.7 assists on a per-36 minute basis, as well. Poeltl’s also averaging 2.0 assists in 28.3 minutes per game since the All-Star Break. Overall, he’s posted 2+ assists in 7 of his last 10 games.
With LaMarcus Aldridge out, Poeltl’s expected to continue to see minutes in the high-20s. He’s a solid passing big in the NBA, and the over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of this game.
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