NBA Trends and Line Movement (3/29)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Indiana Pacers opened as 4.5 point road favorites over the Washington Wizards tonight. The lines shifted 0.5 points toward Indiana, making them 5 point favorites. The game total opened as 234.5 points, dropping to 233 throughout the day. The Pacers team total dipped from 119.5 to 119, while the Wizards decreased from 115 to 114.
Indiana’s struggled against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in only 40.9% of their games thus far. Washington’s found slightly more success, covering in 50% of their contests this season. The Wizards have been sightly worse at home, where they own an 11-12 ATS record. The Pacers, on the other hand, have been better on the road, recording a 12-12 road ATS record.
Both teams have found the over more often than not this season. Indiana’s hit it in 60.5% of their games, while Washington’s found it in 52.3% of theirs. The Wizards have hit the over significantly more often at home, though, where they possess a 15-8 over/under record. The Pacers boast a 15-8-1 over/under record on the road, as well.
There’s one prop that sticks out to our Prop Predictor tonight. Malcolm Brogdon’s rebounding total is set at 5.5 tonight. He owns a Karma Projection of 4.5, though, giving the under an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Brogdon’s averaging 4.7 rebounds in 35.2 minutes per game through 42 contests. He’s also averaging 4.5 rebounds in 33.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. E’s posted 5 or fewer rebounding in 6 of his last 10 games.
The biggest question mark in this game is the pace Washington plays at, as it will allow for more rebounding opportunities. Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis should be the bigger beneficiaries, though.
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