NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/2)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll breakdown the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Boston Celtics opened as 9.5 point home favorites over the Houston Rockets tonight. The lines increased 2 points toward Boston, as they’re now 11.5 point favorites. The game total opened at 224 points, dropping to 223 throughout the day. Ultimately, the Rockets team total decreased from 107.25 to 105.75, while the Celtics increased from 116.75 to 117.25.
Both teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. Boston’s covered in 45.8% of their games this season, while Houston’s covered in a league-low 31.9% of theirs. The Celtics do own a 12-10 home ATS record this season. The Rockets have been better on the road this season, recording an 11-13 road ATS record.
Boston’s favored the over this season, hitting it in 52.1% of their games. Houston, on the other hand, has found the under in 60.9% of their contests. The Celtics lean toward the under at home, where they own a 10-12 over/under record. The Rockets quietly own a 12-12 over/under record on the road, though.
This game features a few bets our Prop Predictor likes with one sticking out above the rest. Jaylen Brown’s assist total is set at 2.5 tonight. He owns a 3.2 Karma Projection, though, and the over boasts an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Brown’s averaging 3.7 assists in 34 minutes per game through 44 contests this season. He’s only averaging 2 assists in 34.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Browns recorded 3+ assists in 5 of his last 9 games, although he hasn’t in 4 consecutive contests. He’s also averaging 4.2 assists per game at home this season.
Brown will continue to play major minutes and a big role in the Boston offense. It's easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the over for this prop.
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