NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/9)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Boston Celtics opened as 8.5 point home favorites against the Minnesota Wolves. The line shifted 0.5 points toward Boston, as they are now 9 point favorites. The game total opened at 228.5 points, dropping to 227.5 throughout the day. Overall, the Celtics team total dipped from 118.5 to 118.25, while the Wolves decreased from 110 to 109.25.
Both of these teams have struggled against the spread (ATS) this season. Boston’s covered in 46.2% of their games, while Minnesota’s covered in 45.1% of theirs. The Celtics have been better at home, though, where they own a 14-12 ATS record this season. The Wolves haven’t traveled well, recording an 11-15-1 road ATS record.
Minnesota’s a neutral team in terms of the over, hitting the over and under at a 50% clip thus far. Boston leans more toward the under, finding it in 51.9% of their games. The Celtics hit the under significantly more often at home, where they’ve posted a 10-16 over/under record this season. The Wolves quietly own a 15-12 over/under record on the road, though.
This game features one prop that stands above the rest, according to our Prop Predictor. Marcus Smart’s assist total is set at 4.5 tonight, but he boasts a 5.8 Karma Projection. The difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Smart’s averaging 5.5 assists in 32.1 minutes per game through 33 contests this season. He’s also averaging 6.6 assists in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Smart’s posted 5+ assists in 3 of his last 5 games and 6 of his last 10.
With Evan Fournier out, Smart will continue to be locked into major minutes for Boston. He’s a big part of the offense and should continue to find success with scorers surrounding him.
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