NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/12)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the spread, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The San Antonio Spurs opened as -6 point road favorites against the Orlando Magic. The lines shifted 1 point toward San Antonio since open, as well. The game total opened at 220.5 points, dropping to 217.5 throughout the day. The Spurs team total dipped from 113.25 to 112.25, while the Magics decreased from 107.25 to 105.25.
Both teams have found similar success against the spread (ATS). San Antonio’s covered in 52.9% of their games, while Orlando’s covered in 51.9% of theirs. The Magic own similar home and road splits, recording a 14-13-1 home ATS record. The Spurs have found more success on the road, where they boast a 15-7 ATS record this season.
Each of these teams leans slightly toward the under, as well. San Antonio’s hit the under in 51% of their games, while Orlando’s found it in 51.9% of theirs. The Magic own a 13-15 over/under record at home this season, as well. San Antonio’s been neutral on the road, possessing an 11-11 over/under record.
This game features a couple of outstanding bets. Our Prop Predictors favorite is Jakob Poeltl under 2.5 assists. His Karma Projection is set at 1.7, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Poeltl’s averaging 1.9 assists in only 25.6 minutes per game through 51 contests. He’s also averaging 3.0 assists in 34.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Poeltl boasts assist potential, but he’s recorded fewer than 3 assists in 6 of his last 10 games.
Poeltl’s expected to continue to play 30+ minutes each night. He isn’t a high usage guy, though, and will continue to see somewhat of limit assist opportunities. Even with recent success, his under is our Prop Predictors favorite bet of this game.
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