NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/13)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Toronto Raptors opened as 3 point home favorites against the Atlanta Hawks tonight. The lines shifted 5 points toward Atlanta, as they are now 2 point favorites. The game total opened at 222.5 points, increasing to 224.5 throughout the day. The Hawks team total jumped from 109.75 to 113.25, while the Raptors dropped from 112.75 to 111.25.
Atlanta’s found plenty of success against the spread (ATS) this season. They’ve covered in 54.7% of their games thus far. Toronto hasn’t performed as well, covering in only 40.7% of their contests. The Raptors have also struggled at home, where they own a 10-15 ATS record. The Hawks haven’t been as successful on the road, recording a 15-14-1 ATS record this season.
Atlanta’s been neutral in terms of the game total, hitting both the over and under 50% of the time. Toronto’s found the over more often than not, hitting it in 55.6% of their games. The Raptors have leaned toward the under at home, though, where they possess a 12-13 over/under record. With that being said, the Hawks boast a 16-14 over/under record on the road, leaning slightly toward the over.
This game has a few interesting prop bets available. One of our Prop Predictors favorite is Trae Young’s rebounding total. His total is set at 3.5 rebounds tonight. He boasts a 4.2 Karma Projection, though, giving the difference an A Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Young’s averaging 4.0 rebounds in 34.2 minutes per game through 50 contests this season. He’s also averaging 4.0 rebounds in 32.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. His rebounds are inconsistent, but he’s hit the over in each of his last 2 games, recording 13 rebounds in those contests.
Young’s dealing with a calf injury, but he’s expected to play full minutes tonight. He gets a plus matchup against Toronto, who continues to deal with injuries. His rebounding total is set at a bit low, and it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor likes the over with this bet.
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