NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/15)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Milwaukee Bucks opened as 5.5 point road favorites against the Atlanta Hawks. The line moved 1.5 points toward Atlanta, as Milwaukee is now only a 4 point favorite. The game total opened at 228.5 points, increasing to 230.5 throughout the day. The Bucks team total shifted from 117 to 117.25, while the Hawks jumped from 111.5 to 113.25.
Atlanta’s found plenty of success against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 55.6% of their games. Milwaukee hasn’t been as successful, covering in only 44.4% of their games. The Hawks have performed well at home, as well, boasting a 14-10 ATS record. The Bucks feature one of the worst ATS records in the MLB on the road, sitting at only 11-17 this season.
Milwaukee’s hit the over at one of the highest rates (60.4%) in the NBA this year. Atlanta's been closer to neutral, finding the under in 50.9% of their contests. The Hawks possess an 11-13 over/under record at home this season, as well. The Bucks continue to lean the over on the road, where they own a 15-12-1 record.
There are a few bets our Prop Predictor loves in this contest. Kevin Huerter’s rebounding total is set at 2.5, but he boasts a 3.5 Karma Projection tonight. The difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Huerter’s averaging 3.2 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game through 55 contests this season. He’s only averaging 2.4 rebounds in 30.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days, though. He’s posted 3+ rebounds in 2 of his last 5 games, although he’s struggled in terms of rebounding in recent games.
Huerter’s expected to play minutes in the mid-30s tonight. He’s averaging 3.8 rebounds per game at home, and the over is one of our Prop Predictors favorite bets in this game.
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