MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/16)
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MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/16)

Justin Bales
04-16-2021

The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, the moneyline, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook

 

In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game. 

 

Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox



The Boston Red Sox opened as -113 home favorites against the Chicago White Sox today. The line’s barely shifted throughout the day, as Boston is now a -112 favorite. The game total opened at 9, holding steady at that number. Overall, the Red Sox own an implied team total of 4.8 runs, while the White Sox boast a total of 4.6. 

 

Boston’s been the best team in the MLB, covering the run line in 76.9% of their games. Chicago hasn’t found as much success, covering in only 38.5% of their contests. Surprisingly, the Red Sox only own a 3-3 run line record at home this season. The White Sox have recorded a 3-4 road run line record thus far. 

 

Boston’s found the over more often than not in their games, hitting it in 61.5% of their games early this season. Chicago, on the other hand, has hit the under in 61.5% of their games. The Red Sox also boast a 4-2 over/under record at home. The White Sox have been an over team on the road thus far, recording a 4-3 over/under record on the road. 

 

This game features one outstanding bet, according to our Prop Predictor. Dylan Cease’s strikeout total is set at 5.5, but he owns a Karma Projection of 4.45. The difference gives the under an A Karma Grade. 

You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here

 

Cease posted a 24.8% strikeout rate in his first season in the MLB before his rate dipped to 17.3% in 2020. It’s increased to 22% through 2 starts this season. Cease posted 9 strikeouts over 9.1 innings this season. 

 

He isn’t a pitcher that is going to throw deep into the game, as he continues to struggle with control issues. Boston strikes out at one of the lowest rates in the MLB this season, and it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under for this bet. 


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