NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/16)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The New Orleans Pelicans opened as 2 point road favorites against the Washington Wizards. The line shifted slightly toward New Orleans, as they are now 2.5 point favorites. The game total opened at 242.5 points and hasn’t moved throughout the day. The Pelicans team total increased from 122.25 to 122.5, while the Wizards decreased from 120.25 to 120.
Washington’s found more success against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 51.8% of their games. New Orleans has struggled thus far, covering in only 45.5% of their contests. The Wizards have been worse at home, though, where they own a 12-14 ATS record. With that being said, the Pelicans have recorded an 11-14 road ATS record so far this season.
Washington’s been a neutral team in terms of the game total, hitting the over and under each 50% of the time. New Orleans leads the NBA in over percentage, though, finding it in 65.5% of their games. The Wizards are a different team at home, though, where they own a 16-10 over/under record. The Pelicans only boast a 14-11 over/under record on the road, though.
This game features a few great betting options with one sticking out more than the rest. Lonzo Ball’s assist total is set at 4.5 tonight. He owns a 5.8 Karma Projection, though, giving the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Ball’s averaging 5.7 assists in 31.4 minutes per game through 41 contests this season. He’s also averaging 7 assists in 28.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days, although those are limited games. Overall, he’s posted 5+ assists in 8 of his last 10 games, including 7 of his last 8.
Ball’s expected to play full minutes tonight, which makes this prop even more surprising. He’s posted 8+ assists in 4 of his last 5 games, including a game with 17. Add in that he gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards, and Ball’s over is an elite bet tonight.
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