NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/17)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Washington Wizards opened as 5.5 point home favorites against the Detroit Pistons. The line shifted 1.5 points towards Detroit, as Washington is currently a 4 point favorite. The game total opened at 228.5 points, dropping to 226 throughout the day. Overall, the Pistons team total decreased from 111.5 to 111, while the Wizards dipped from 117 to 115.
Both of these teams have found success against the spread (ATS). Detroit’s covered in 55.6% of their games this season, while Washington’s covered in 52.7%. The Wizards have struggled a bit at home, where they own a 13-14 ATS record. The Pistons, on the other hand, boast a 16-13-1 road ATS record thus far.
Both teams lean slightly toward the under. Detroit and Washington have hit the under in 51.8% and 50.9% of their games, respectively. With that being said, the Wizards own a 16-11 home over/under record. The Pistons also lean toward the over when on the road, posting a 16-14 road over/under record this season.
There are a few solid prop bets in this game, according to our Prop Predictor, with one sticking out. Saddiq Bey’s assist total is set at 1.5, but he owns a Karma Projection of 2.1. The difference gives the over an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Bey’s averaging 1.3 assists in only 25.3 minutes per game through 54 contests this season. He’s also averaging only 1 assist in 32.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Overall, he’s posted 2+ assists in 2 of his last 3 contests, although he struggled prior to that.
Bey’s locked into 30+ minutes on a nightly basis for Detroit. He also gets an elite matchup against a fast-paced Washington team, giving him extra opportunities to find assists tonight. The total is set low, and the over is our Prop Predictors favorite bet in this game.
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