MLB Trends and Line Movement (4/19)
The Bet Karma MLB Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, moneylines, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Philadelphia Phillies opened as -110 home favorites against the San Francisco Giants. The line shifted slightly towards San Francisco, as they are now -109 favorites, although the game is essentially a pick ‘em. The game total opened at 8.5 runs and hasn’t shifted thus far. The Giants boast an implied team total of 4.4 runs, while the Phillies run total dipped from 4.5 to 4.4.
Philadelphia’s found plenty of success in 2021, covering the run line in 60% of their games. San Francisco’s also found success, covering in 53.3% of their contests. The Phillies boast a 6-3 run line record at home this season. The Giants possess a 5-4 road run line record.
These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. Philadelphia’s hit the over in 60% of their games thus far. San Francisco, on the other hand, owns a league-high 73.3% under percentage. The Phillies have posted a 5-4 over/under record at home this season. The Giants boast a 3-6 road over/under record in 2021.
This game features one bet that stands above the rest, according to our Prop Predictor. Chase Anderson’s strikeout total is set at 5.5 tonight. He owns a 4.67 Karma Projection, giving the under an A- Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Anderson’s struggled in limited starts this season. He’s recorded only 3 strikeouts in each of his starts this season, throwing only 9 innings thus far. Anderson’s strikeout rate dipped to 15.8% this season, although his swinging-strike rate increased to 12.3%.
I expect him to find more strikeouts as the season continues, and this is a plus matchup. The Phillies rank ninth in the MLB in strikeout percentage (25.8%). Anderson’s struggled to throw deep into games, though, limiting his opportunities for strikeouts.
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