NBA Trends and Line Movement (4/19)
The new Bet Karma NBA Trends page is designed to show the line movement in team totals, spreads, and game totals. Each section features the opening number, live number, and difference between the two. The movement is taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
In this article, I’ll break down the movement from one game with the corresponding player prop bet from our Prop Predictor. All of our player props can be found on the Live Odds page by clicking “view props” for each game.
The Cleveland Cavaliers opened as 2 point home favorites against the Detroit Pistons. The line shifted 1 point toward Cleveland, as they are now 3 point favorites. The game total opened at 213.5 points, dropping to 213 throughout the day. The Cavs team total increased from 107.75 to 108, while the Pistons dipped from 105.75 to 105.
Detroit’s found success against the spread (ATS) this season, covering in 54.5% of their games. Cleveland hasn’t found the same success, covering in only 41.1% of their contests. The Pistons have performed well at home, as well, recording a 14-11-1 ATS record. The Cavs feature the worst road ATS record in the league, as it currently sits at 10-19.
Both teams lean toward in the under in their games. Detroit’s hit the under in 52.6% of their games, while Cleveland’s hit it in 56.4% of theirs. The Pistons find the under more at home, where they own an 11-15 over/under record. The Cavs are similar on the road, where they possess an 11-18 over/under record this season.
This game features a few outstanding prop bets. Collin Sexton’s rebound total is set at 3.5 tonight. He owns a 2.7 Karma Projection, though, giving the under an A+ Karma Grade.
You can view all of our player props for this game by clicking here.
Sexton’s averaging 2.9 rebounds in 35.4 minutes per game through 47 contests this season. He’s averaging 3.0 rebounds in 34.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days, as well. Overall, he’s posted fewer than 4 rebounds in 6 of his last 8 contests.
Sexton will continue to play minutes in the mid-30s, but he isn’t an elite rebounding guard that attacks the glass. Even with a bit of recent success, it’s easy to see why our Prop Predictor loves the under for this prop.
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